الأربعاء، 6 أبريل 2011

FOREX 101

For those unfamiliar with the term, FOREX (FOReign EXchange market), refers to an international exchange market where currencies are bought and sold. The Foreign Exchange Market that we see today began in the 1970′s, when free exchange rates and floating currencies were introduced. In such an environment only participants in the market determine the price of one currency against another, based upon supply and demand for that currency.
FOREX is a somewhat unique market for a number of reasons. Firstly, it is one of the few markets in which it can be said with very few qualifications that it is free of external controls and that it cannot be manipulated. It is also the largest liquid financial market, with trade reaching between 1 and 1.5 trillion US dollars a day. With this much money moving this fast, it is clear why a single investor would find it near impossible to significantly affect the price of a major currency. Furthermore, the liquidity of the market means that unlike some rarely traded stock, traders are able to open and close positions within a few seconds as there are always willing buyers and sellers.
Another somewhat unique characteristic of the FOREX money market is the variance of its participants. Investors find a number of reasons for entering the market, some as longer term hedge investors, while others utilize massive credit lines to seek large short term gains. Interestingly, unlike blue-chip stocks, which are usually most attractive only to the long term investor, the combination of rather constant but small daily fluctuations in currency prices, create an environment which attracts investors with a broad range of strategies.
How FOREX Works
Transactions in foreign currencies are not centralized on an exchange, unlike say the NYSE, and thus take place all over the world via telecommunications. Trade is open 24 hours a day from Sunday afternoon until Friday afternoon (00:00 GMT on Monday to 10:00 pm GMT on Friday). In almost every time zone around the world, there are dealers who will quote all major currencies. After deciding what currency the investor would like to purchase, he or she does so via one of these dealers (some of which can be found online). It is quite common practice for investors to speculate on currency prices by getting a credit line (which are available to those with capital as small as $500), and vastly increase their potential gains and losses. This is called marginal trading.
Marginal Trading
Marginal trading is simply the term used for trading with borrowed capital. It is appealing because of the fact that in FOREX investments can be made without a real money supply. This allows investors to invest much more money with fewer money transfer costs, and open bigger positions with a much smaller amount of actual capital. Thus, one can conduct relatively large transactions, very quickly and cheaply, with a small amount of initial capital. Marginal trading in an exchange market is quantified in lots. The term "lot" refers to approximately $100,000, an amount which can be obtained by putting up as little as 0.5% or $500.
EXAMPLE: You believe that signals in the market are indicating that the British Pound will go up against the US Dollar. You open 1 lot for buying the Pound with a 1% margin at the price of 1.49889 and wait for the exchange rate to climb. At some point in the future, your predictions come true and you decide to sell. You close the position at 1.5050 and earn 61 pips or about $405. Thus, on an initial capital investment of $1,000, you have made over 40% in profits. (Just as an example of how exchange rates change in the course of a day, an average daily change of the Euro (in Dollars) is about 70 to 100 pips.)
When you decide to close a position, the deposit sum that you originally made is returned to you and a calculation of your profits or losses is done. This profit or loss is then credited to your account.
Investment Strategies: Technical Analysis and Fundamental Analysis
The two fundamental strategies in investing in FOREX are Technical Analysis or Fundamental Analysis. Most small and medium sized investors in financial markets use Technical Analysis. This technique stems from the assumption that all information about the market and a particular currency’s future fluctuations is found in the price chain. That is to say, that all factors which have an effect on the price have already been considered by the market and are thus reflected in the price. Essentially then, what this type of investor does is base his/her investments upon three fundamental suppositions. These are: that the movement of the market considers all factors, that the movement of prices is purposeful and directly tied to these events, and that history repeats itself. Someone utilizing technical analysis looks at the highest and lowest prices of a currency, the prices of opening and closing, and the volume of transactions. This investor does not try to outsmart the market, or even predict major long term trends, but simply looks at what has happened to that currency in the recent past, and predicts that the small fluctuations will generally continue just as they have before.
A Fundamental Analysis is one which analyzes the current situations in the country of the currency, including such things as its economy, its political situation, and other related rumors. By the numbers, a country’s economy depends on a number of quantifiable measurements such as its Central Bank’s interest rate, the national unemployment level, tax policy and the rate of inflation. An investor can also anticipate that less quantifiable occurrences, such as political unrest or transition will also have an effect on the market. Before basing all predictions on the factors alone, however, it is important to remember that investors must also keep in mind the expectations and anticipations of market participants. For just as in any stock market, the value of a currency is also based in large part on perceptions of and anticipations about that currency, not solely on its reality.
Make Money with Currency Trading on FOREX
FOREX investing is one of the most potentially rewarding types of investments available. While certainly the risk is great, the ability to conduct marginal trading on FOREX means that potential profits are enormous relative to initial capital investments. Another benefit of FOREX is that its size prevents almost all attempts by others to influence the market for their own gain. So that when investing in foreign currency markets one can feel quite confident that the investment he or she is making has the same opportunity for profit as other investors throughout the world. While investing in FOREX short term requires a certain degree of diligence, investors who utilize a technical analysis can feel relatively confident that their own ability to read the daily fluctuations of the currency market are sufficiently adequate to give them the knowledge necessary to make informed investments

"The Logical Trader" - Thread to develop manual trading using insights from this book

Intro
The purpose of this thread is to try to develop manual trading methods based on the methodology offered in “
The Logical Trader: Applying a Method to the Madness” by Mark Fisher. I am talking about intraday scalping, not longer-term trading. Astral and I have been playing with this and it looks promising.

Those of us who have been around FF for a while have benefited hugely from the teaching and advice of some formidable traders. One of these is Brijon, who drew our attention to the book in his “The Amazing Magic of 3MW “ thread at http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=242404,


This book is freely available in pdf format, at
http://rapidshare.com/#!download|502l35|176975836|MARK_FI SHER-The_Logical_Trader_Applying_A_Metho d_2The_MADNESS-www.dl4all.com.pdf|11774

Another download link for the book supplied by ava_ind is
http://www.mediafire.com/?6gkgumyiwdphttp://www.mediafire.com/?6gkgumyiwdp

Download it and read chapters 1, 2 and 3 so that you understand the concept of The Range and The Pivot Range. Some have had difficulty with the above link, so try the one in this post if you also have a problem: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...1&postcount=11

astral posted this link http://www.investopedia.com/articles.../04/032404.asp to an excellent summary of the book. Reading it after reading the book will help clarify your thoughts. Reading it before reading the book will prepare your minds for what is to come. I suggest you do both.

To help further still, the ACD Breakdown.zip contains a summary of Mark Fisher's rules, provided by Hiredwhip - a contributor to take notice of when he contributes.
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The method
This is a summary of my understanding of his method:


The Range
  1. Select a trading range start time and a time frame in which to generate the Range:
    • start time should be the normal market opening time e.g. 8.00 gmt for gbpusd (maybe 7.00 am gmt as so many European trading centres open at that time.
    • time frame will be whatever tf you want to trade
  2. When one candle has passed after your range time start, draw a box that delineates the high and low of that candle.
  3. When the market trades above the box by x pips for a period of half the time-frame, this validates an 'A' point. Trade long. Stop is a few pips below the bottom of the box.
  4. Vice-versa for a sell.
  5. Once a trade is open, exit if the market does not move for a period of half the time-frame.


The Pivot Range
  1. Calculate the pivot of the previous day. This is:
    1. (High + Low + Close) / 3
  2. Calculate the pivot differential. This is:
    1. Absolute(Pivot - (High + Low) / 2
  3. Calculate the pivot range. This is:
    1. Pivot + pivot differential (top of range)
    2. Pivot - pivot differential (bottom of range)
  4. Plot lines on the chart that represent the top and bottom of the pivot range
  5. Trading bias is:
    1. short if the market opens below the pivot range
    2. long if the market opens above the pivot range
    3. neutral if the market opens within the pivot range
  6. Trade long following a break through the upper range line from below. Stop is a few pips below the lower range line.
  7. Trade short following a break through the lower range line from above. Stop is a few pips above the higher range line.

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Trade entry methods


The first picture shows a chart for GJ, to illustrate the lines that the attached ea will draw for you. The Range is turquoise; the Pivot Range is blue. I am trading the H1 chart, and so look for a trade entry signal when the market has been trading outside the box for 30 minutes.


The publish date for Mark Fisher's book is 2002; this pre-dates the ability that most of us had to trade Forex via our home computers and the book is not intended for Forex traders. This throws up some interesting features that I discovered quickly:
  1. forex market wave-pattern movement does not lend itself to closing a trade after half the trading tf has elapsed. Also, a pair can pause for quite some time before moving off in the direction of the trade. I abandoned this early on.
  2. As recommended, the stops were often hit, usually just before the market resumed movement in favour of the trade. I am not a fan of stop losses, so I quickly stopped using them. I would add a far-distant emergency stop loss to live trades to ensure against disaster, but this would be a long way away. I protect my account by trading lot sizes small enough to withstand a move of several thousand pips against me.
  3. The excessive volatility of Forex renders useless a lot of the techniques MF describes. Equally, it creates extra opportunities to compensate.


This method lends itself easily to personalisation. I have started by using ChaserL's Sixths indi –
you will find this in the Indicators zip. This indi evolved from the work of Nanningbob in his version 5 trading thread at http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=246113. Newbie traders, go and read the thread and trade the method manually; you will learn much about the markets and how to trade them.


Macman contacted me with an evolution of the system that I coded into an auto-trading ea. Find out about this, and the further evolution of macman's idea at http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...=1#post4135863. You will discover how ChaserL adapted the sixths indi to create a dynamic bar count. You can also download the The Old Beast, the ea that many of us are using successfully for live trading.


The second picture shows the indi loaded onto the chart. Looking at this, even had Logical given a valid A signal, I would not have taken the trade. The market would have been at the point at which us TOB traders would be looking to go short, not long, so this makes a neat trade filter.


Another possibility is to drop down to a lower tf once we have a valid A signal, and use the ea I coded to help trade 3MW as a further signals generator. You can download and read about this at http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=280999. I may experiment with this myself.

In the Scripts zip are two scripts to send market orders for you. To use them, drag them onto your chart, make the required changes to the inputs and click OK. Remember that IBFX are ECN even though they try to hide this.
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Trade exit methods


This is the shortest section in this post, yet it is the area that needs the most attention. At the mo, I am using a 30 pip take profit. Others will experiment with the features offered by mptm. For the newbies, Multi-Purpose Trade Manager offers many management features and can be downloaded from http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=89371

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Dealing with 'losing' trades


In my view, we have 4 methods of dealing with losing trades:
  1. Stop out at a stop loss. Just because I do not favour this does not mean it is not a valid method. You can be an 'I am right or I am out' trader if you can find a way to calculate stops that are not regularly hit before the market resumes in your favour.
  2. Manual closure when your instinct/experience/knowledge tells you to get out.
  3. Nanningbob-style Recovery. Newbies, when you have visited Bob's thread you will have a good idea how this works. I have attached a pdf to summarise this to help you.
  4. Hedging.


This is what I am going to try this week. I opened a trade that remained in dd overnight:
  1. Recovery, when a new signal validates a new A in the direction of my first trade.
  2. Hedging at original lot x 2 when a valid A appears in the opposite direction to my first trade. Not sure what I shall do when the market reverses yet again. Possibly close the position, take the hit and cry or; hedge again – this could become messy.


iExposure is an indi that calculates the breakeven take profit on a Recovery position. You will find this in the Indicators zip.

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Thread development


We are trying to develop methods of trading based on the insights gained from Mark Fisher's book. As we develop them, I will add them to a pdf that will live as an attachment to this post.


I have no intention of coding a trading ea for all this. We may need to refine the signals generator and I can develop scripts that can use a variety of strategies for setting stops and tp's etc, but I want to develop a manual trading system that we can adopt to our tastes and styles.

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Thread rules

  1. Be constructive. Naysayers keep quiet. If you do not like what you read here, I invite you to say why you feel it will not work. You may not merely post along the lines of, “This is all bollocks and anybody who trades this way is an idiot.” Not twice, at least.
  2. Be polite.


Rule-breakers will be banned from posting in all of my threads.

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Potentially vitally useful posts

Sorry guys, but this is really for my own benefit to make sure I do not forget where these posts are. Still, you might benefit from reading them.

sq: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...5&postcount=59
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Most of the inputs are easy to understand. Some that might need explanation are:
  • RangeShift: this allows you to look back further in time in order to do some paper trading. For instance, if you wanted to paper trade 5 days ago, you would set this to 5.
  • RangeStartTime: this is the start time of the candle you wish to use as your trading range. It should be the time that the market you are trading opens, expressed in your local computer time. As some examples, I am trading:
    • EU, so my RangeStartTime is 07.00 – European opening.
    • UJ, so my RangeStartTime is 13.00 – New York opening.
  • PipsBuffer are the number of pips above/below the range hi-lo that the market has to trade beyond to validate a nes A signal. Enter this in 'proper' pips, not the points so beloved of wally-plonker-dipstick criminals; the ea automatically accomodates to x digit crims.
  • PivotTimeFrame: the default calculates the Pivot Range on the D1 tf. You enter this in minutes that correspond with the tf whose Pivot Range you chose.
  • PivotShift: the Pivot Range should be calculated on the previous PivotTimeFrame candle, so the default is 1. Adding to this makes Logical look further back in time for the pivot.
  • CriminalHasSundayCandle: here in the UK, trading starts at 10.00 pm on Sunday nights when Tokyo gets going. To have the Pivot Range calculated using candles from Sunday night would wreck the figures, so Logical compensates on Monday by incrementing PivotShift to look back to Friday. You need to have this input enabled if your crim opens for trading on Sunday night.
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Notes for newbie traders


I do not envy you; you have so much to learn. Much of what is discussed here will leave you bewildered and confused. To get to the level of understanding that those of use who are old-stagers, requires a huge amount of reading and learning. You do not know it yet, but you have concepts to grasp that took some of us quite a long time to learn.


I suggest you follow this sequence:
  1. Read Mark Fisher's book and start demo-trading using Logical to trigger signals.
  2. Read Bob's V5 thread and learn about counter-trend trading. Do some manual trading and use Recovery to deal with the losing trades.
  3. Go to my The Old Beast thread and learn to use the ea and ChaserL's sixths indi.
  4. Go to Brian's thread and learn about his Concept of Threes trading.
  5. Go to my thread about the ea that trades Brian's method and learn to use it as a signals generator.


All this will take you a long time; I am describing stuff that took months to develop. Once you have finished, you will have a much better understanding of Forex trading than you could gain without paying a fortune to a professional trader to learn. You might even avoid losing all your money. Possibly.


I thought long and hard about following my customary path of limiting posting in this thread to those with 1 voucher or on my Buddy list. I have decided to do so to avoid having the thread cluttered by the inevitable newbie questions that will otherwise arise. Those of you who have expertise to offer but have not yet been vouched for by a fellow-trader at FF can get around this restriction; send me a pm to ask to be added to my Buddy list. Go to your profile page and follow the link to read about FF's voucher system and what it means.


Not many of us at FF are professionally-trained floor traders; most of us were newbs at some stage and had the most basic of questions to ask. To accommodate you newbies, I have set up a thread at
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=4484850#post4484850;. Feel free to ask you rock-bottom basic questions there without fear of mockery. Someone will help you out in a supportive spirit.

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In conclusion


I have no idea whether this thread will go anywhere or not; it might be dead by this time next week. We shall see. Let's have a go and see if we can develop something of value to us all.
 
 

Pivots + RSX + Stochastic on M15 & M30 - Intraday rangebound




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Sixths trading - an EA by macman, Bob and Steve mk 2

SERIOUS WARNING
  • Most Forex traders lose all their money.
  • Using the robot posted here in trading Forex does not guarantee success.
  • Trading this robot could lead to serious financial loss.
  • Trading this robot without understanding its underlying trading strategies guarantees traders will lose their money.
  • To trade this robot, you have to understand how to use the Sixths indicator. To learn how to do this you need to learn NanningBob's V5 trading system, so go to http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=246113

Welcome to The Old Beast. Congratulations on finding your way here. Some of the brightest minds at FF are at work on this project.

There is a comprehensive user guide attached - the pdf. Read it for details of the trading strategy and info about the inputs. The pdf will direct you to the thread that produced the system that led to The Beast's creation (Nanningbob V5). You need to understand that system, but this thread is not a you-must-read-all thread. Read the user guide then keep up with the latest contributions and you will not go far wrong.

Confused, baffled and bewildered newbies, dump The Old Beast on demo charts, make sure the lot sizes are acceptable to your criminal, accept the defaults and sit back to watch until you do understand what is going on.

Live trading
Many of us are trading TOB live and have been for some time. In an average week, it makes 1 - 1.5% profit on the balance at the start of the week. As the balance increases, so does the profit.

DO NOT mortgage the house and start a live account with $50,000. Forex trading requires traders to demostrate two huge personality traits:
  1. Patience
  2. Balls of steel
The idea is to start with a small account and grow the balance into a large account. This takes time - hence the patience bit. Once your equity exceeds your deposit (equity = balance - drawdown) by a comfortable margin, you are playing with 'free' money and can breathe a sigh of relief.

You need balls of steel because this trading leaves your account in drawdown (i.e. open trades with a 'loosing' balance) most of the time. I run my account with a near-constant floating dd of 5 - 10% of the balance. If you cannot tolerate dd, then go away now.

Lot sizes need to be tiny enough to withstand a colossal move against you without causing sleepless nights. It is impossible to offer accurate advice, so experiment on demo; if your lot sizes regularly cause more than 10% floating dd, then they are too high. For what it is worth, here are mine:
  • Broker: IBFX Australia
  • Leverage: 1:100
  • Lot size: 0.01 lots per $200 balance. Therefore my current lot size is 0.08 on my account balance of $1,531 (3rd April 2011).
Various account-related filters make it possible to trade TOM on umpteen charts without rising blowing the account, so long as your lot sizes are sane. You do need a lot of charts to generate a decent trading volume; TOB is not a trading tart.

Much of this thread concerns development of the first incarnation of The Beast and is of no relevance. I closed the thread for a while; we were developing Beastie and I thought this thread had run its useful course. This turns out to be a wrong assumption. Posts following its re-opening begin at post 620 on page 42 (http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=620.


Ok, have fun. Make profit. The rest of us are.



Temporary section until I update the user guide
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Traders familiar with my work need read no further.

Posting restrictions
I have restricted the ability to post in this thread to: traders with at least 1 voucher; and traders on my 'buddy' list. I have done this because I do not want the thread cluttered with 'newbie' questions about the basics. New/inexperienced traders, this is not intended as a direct insult. What I want here is discussion with traders who fully understand what it is they are doing; when you newbs have been around a while, you will come to understand what a difference experience makes to the posts a member writes and shudder at the recollection of some of the questions you asked. I do. Go to your profile page; there is a link to the FF page that describes the voucher process.

Do not attempt to get around this by sending me pm's asking for help with your basic problems. Doing so will earn you an automatic ban from all of my threads.

I have set up a partner thread to this one and Nanningbob's at http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...66#post3948666
There, you can post the questions that you cannot post here, about anything you need to know. Someone with the knowledge and experience you need will answer. I opened it for Nanningbob traders, but feel free to ask about this robot as well.

Traders/coders with experience who have not yet been vouched for, can get around this restriction be being added to my 'buddy' list; all you have to do is pm me to ask me to do this.

Snow Roller - An Avalanche of Profits

Welcome to the Snow Roller automated currency trading system for forex. Snow Roller is designed as a fully automated trading strategy and uses money management to close a basket of fx symbols based on P&L criteria that you enter. Your results depend on the currencies you choose, the timeframe, and the settings (basket profit/loss, symbol profit/loss, position profit/loss). I have provided the source code, your role is to provide the test results, whether good, bad or ugly.

This system is an expansion on 7Bit's "snowballs and the anti-grid" concept. You can find 7Bit's thread here. This basic anti-grid concept has been developed into a fully automated currency trading strategy. MQ4 (MetaTrader) Source code for Snow Roller is available. (see link below)

Basket_Stats: I have created an additional indicator tool to be used with the Snow Roller EA. It will tell you which pairs in your basket are adding to performance, and which pairs are costing you money. You can find the indicator Basket Stats at the link below.

As with all new strategies - please don't trade this strategy with real money until you have fully tested it for several months. I'm making this EA available to encourage testing and feedback / collaboration. I believe this EA has a sound fundamental basis because it's based on the same key concept as the snowball EA but only time and testing will tell how well this formulation performs. If the selected markets trend, Snow Roller should rack up the pips! Testing starts now.

Pairs being tested: EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, USDCHF, AUDUSD, EURJPY, EURGBP, AUDJPY, CHFJPY, GBPCHF, EURCHF
Timeframe: 5 Minute. Settings - OOTB
Pairs that didn't test well: USDCAD, GBPJPY (YMMV)

For 1 minute the pairs that have tested well: EURJPY, CHFJPY, USDCHF, EURUSD, EURCHF, EURGBP. and GBPUSD is on the bubble.

Let the fun begin!

Download the source code here. (please show your appreciation by clicking the ads)


below are some useful scripts:

For those of you using MIG or another br0ker that uses 0.1 minimum lot sizing, I attached my MIG settings file below. Same as the other settings, just changed BalancePerlotsize = 5000.0. Copy file into /experts/presets/ directory and remove .txt from the end of the file.

The Difference Between the Stock Market and the Forex Market

What is the Stock Market?

The definition of the stock market is simply the business of trading stocks for the financial aspect. Stock refers to a supply of money that a company has raised. Investors give the company this supply of money in order to help that company grow, therefore increasing the value of their stock and in turn making a profit.

The stock market is one of the more traditional ways to create a profit from an investment... even without having much knowledge about it. A person with little experience can make decent profits with no much effort with traditional investments, such as stocks or bonds.
There is always a risk that a company will go bankrupt at any time

There can be a lot of risk involved when trading large gains in short amounts of time. It can be difficult to develop a trading system that can provide a consistent 10 to 15% profit on a yearly basis.

The stock market is country specific, and deals only in business and currencies within that region. There are set business hours that typically follow the more traditional business day, and is closed on Holidays and weekends.

Let's check out the forex market for a change

The forex market, also known as the foreign exchange or the fx market, is the place where currencies are traded. It is the largest, most liquid market in the world with an average traded value of over 4 trillion per day and includes all of the forex currencies in the world. Compare that to the $25 billion per day that the New York Stock Exchange trades and you can easily see how enormous the forex market really is.

What exactly is traded on the forex market? It is the simultaneous buying of one currency and the selling of another. Currencies are traded through a broker and are always traded in pairs, EUR/USD or GBP/JPY. Think of it as buying a traditional 'share' in a particular country. Let's say you buy British Pound, you are essentially buying a share in the British economy as the price of the GBP is a direct reflection of what the market thinks about not only the current, but future health of the British economy.

Unlike the traditional stock market, the forex market is open 24 hours a day. At any time, somewhere around the world, a financial center is open for business and is exchanging currencies every hour of the day and night.

It follows the sun around the world, so you can trade late at night or early in the morning. Keep in mind that these additional hours also add additional risk for us since we aren't able to monitor our investments 24 hours every day. There are several safety options, such as limit that we will discuss in another chapter.

Forex Trading In Multiple Currencies

One of the most critical things that you must understand in forex trading is hour to correctly determine the value of multiple currencies.

Obviously not everyone will trade in US dollars.


But with so many variables, how can you tell a good buy or sell without complete understanding of the value of foreign currencies?

Your first step is to figure out the current exchange rate between the currencies in question.

Currency conversion is usually expressed in a ratio known as the cross rate. Normally you will see them listed in pairs in a xxx/yyy manner, with the xxx referred to as the 'base' currency (or home currency).

The base currency is usually always listed as a whole number, while the converted currency will be expressed with a decimal that is as close as possible to the base rate.
EXAMPLE: 1 US dollar = 0.61484 British Pound.

You'll notice that the base currency is almost always in single units (such as one dollar instead of ten). And since the whole number (often referred to as the 'big' figure) of the secondary currency almost never changes, it is usually only referred to at the decimal point.

Also with the consolidation of most of the European market using the Euro, many currencies such as franc or the lira have been eliminated, making trading currencies much less complicated.

It will take a bit of time, but once you get used to the base values of each currency, the changes will become more obvious to you, therefore making it easier and less confusing to monitor and you'll be making profitable trading decisions right along with the pros.

Please visit http://www.forexmoneysignal.com for more advice and support and also forex signal solutions

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Roman_Sadowski
Foreign exchange ("Forex") trading is a complicated business.  The foreign exchange trader must take into account (amongst other things) what may be called the "fundamental" factors of a country's economy (i.e. the qualitative factors that may have a bearing on its currency's exchange rate).  So, what are these "fundamental" factors?  They include political positions and developments (such as changes to a country's government's economic policy) and relevant decisions made by a country's central bank. They also include any relevant pieces of economic news affecting the country in question.  The Forex trader needs to not only be aware of this information at an early stage, but to effectively "second guess" how the money markets will react to it.  It would probably be unwise for traders (even those with considerable market experience) to ignore these fundamental elements and to just base their market decisions on technical analyses.

Approximately three trillion dollars is traded each day on the foreign exchange market (on those days that it is operating), making it the world's most liquid market.  FX trading is vastly different to stock trading. (For example, in the Forex market, currencies are "paired" in that when one is bought, the other is sold, and vice versa.)  As such, investors may find FX trading to be a useful means of diversifying their investment portfolios.

A number of factors make the Forex market unique (in addition to its liquidity, mentioned above).  These include the fact that the market operates 24 hours a day, 6 days a week, and that traders in the market typically generate low profit margins (when compared with other markets).

The Forex market has changed quite dramatically since participation was opened up in the 1970's;  now, it is not just the banks, but a range of institutions and investors (both large and small) that routinely participate in the market.  If you do choose to operate in this market, you would be well advised to enroll in a reputable course to learn the nitty gritty of the complicated world of currency trading, find out about the various different ways that this could be done and to consistently apply Forex trading strategies that work.

The important factors that a Forex trader needs to consider when conducting a fundamental analysis of a country's economy include that country's GDP, employment rate, trade balance and most recent budget.  Much of this information is publicly available on the Internet.

The results of a fundamental analysis could affect a trader's course of action in a number of ways. For example, a trader may use fundamental analysis to determine or predict the direction and extent to which a given country's official interest rate may change. Based on this analysis, the trader may sell the country's currency (if he/she predicts interest rates will fall), or buy the country's currency (if he/she predicts interest rates will rise).  Indeed, large investors may take this process a step further by seeking to effectively influence the value of a country's currency. For example, such investors could fund industrial development in a country (when that country's currency is weak) and subsequently sell back that country's currency at a higher rate (when the currency is strong).


In an overall sense, if a Forex trader understands how to conduct a fundamental economic analysis, he or she will be in a much better position to know when to exit an "over inflated" economy before its financial "bubble" bursts.

Learn more about Forex trading for beginner, intermediate and advanced traders and grab some free ebooks and e-courses at http://www.savvyfinancialtraders.com

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